Poll of the Northeast shows 48% would vote for Puea Thai; 8.9% for the DemocratsBy Bangkok Pundit Aug 21, 2013 11:30AM UTC
E-san poll is not a poll that BP has regularly blogged on and hence you may wonder how accurate are their polls. As noted in a post last year:
Two months before the 2011 election, they surveyed voters in all 20 provinces in the Northeast on which party people would vote for in the July 3, 2011 election. The result was Puea Thai, 63.9%; Democrats, 20.7%; and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%. The actual election results for the party vote for the Northeast was Puea Thai 68.2%, Democrats 14.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai 6.5%. Given the survey took place before Yingluck’s introduction (which helped PT), and PT’s strong election performance and the Democrats’s poor performance, the E-san poll appears to have a history – although that pre-election poll surveyed over 2,000 people whereas more recent polls have only surveyed just over 1,000 people each time.
The big advantage of the E-san poll compared with other polls that provide a regional breakdown is that the E-san poll surveys people in all 20 provinces whereas most other pollsters only survey a handful of provinces in each region which are not necessarily reflective of the entire region. This means regional breakdowns are not always accurate.
The latest Isan poll surveyed 1,205 people in all 20 provinces between June 29-30.
Q1 surveys the performance of the government on 6 aspects (ผลสำรวจการประเมินผลงานรัฐบาลใน 6 ด้าน). This is a pass or not pass grade (there is no ‘no opinion’). The figures below are those who give the government a pass:
Source: December 2011; January 2012 (here, here, and here); February and March 2012 (here and here); May 2012 (here); and June 2012 (PDF); August 2012; September-October 2012; November-December 2012; January-February 2013; March-April 2013; and May-June 2013.
BP: You can see that the overall performance is a bit of a yo-yo going up and down from the early 70s to early 80s, but the latest overall pass mark is the lowest at 72. Nevertheless, this is still 72.
You should remember the choosing of the 5 categories – aside from overall – is at the discretion of the pollster so they should not be seen as being equal. BP thinks that the “economic” question is more important in the minds of voters than say environment and/or foreign affairs.
On the economic question, the government barely passes 50% getting 51.7%. This is not the lowest score, but BP views it is still below par and suggests some problems for the government. Given the poor Q2 GDP figures and Thailand entering a technical recession – although year-on-year GDP growth for 2013 is still likely to be around 4% – it will likely take some time before we see a improvement on this ground.
Q2 relates to the s atisfaction with the role performed by the opposition in investigating the government (เมื่อถามถึงความพึงพอใจของการทาหน้าที่ตรวจสอบรัฐบาลของฝ่ายค้าน):
BP: This is not a question of whether voters are satisfied (as in would “support” or “vote for”) the Democrats, but whether they like the role/task of what the opposition is doing.
Q3 is if there was a new election, which party would you vote for (เมื่อถามความคิดเห็นว่าหากมีการเลือกตั้งครั้งใหม่คนอีสานจะเลือกพรรคการ เมืองใด)
NOTE: The actual election 2011 general election results for the party vote for the Northeast was Puea Thai 68.2%, Democrats 14.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai 6.5%.
BP: Actually, for Puea Thai if you average out the 9 surveys, you get 47.29% so 48% is around the average. This is significantly less than for the 2011 election but you have 31.1% undecided and 9.3% who will vote for no one so it is the vast majority of those who will vote for someone are still choosing Puea Thai. It is hard to say who the undecideds will vote for, but Puea Thai will need to win around 50% of them back to get close to their 2011 general election result.
For the Dems, this is actually their lowest result. They have been hovering around the 10% mark for a while except for a big boost (15%) for the last poll.
The results broadly reflect also what a nationwide poll at the end of June for Bangkok University showed and that is while Puea Thai had dropped from 48.8% to 41% (drop of 7.8%), the Democrats had also dropped from 34.8% to 32.4% (drop of 2.4%) so while Puea Thai will be concerned about their numbers, the Democrats are also doing badly and for the Northeast, they are doing worse compared with Puea Thai. In order to win the next election, the Democrats will have to do significantly better. Is their recent performance – particularly brawling with the police in parliament yesterday – going to help them achieve this?